50% Chance

[eskymo 6]

how is this 50% chance when from 7 crafts i fail 5 and get 2..and looking around it h appens a lot....

[stefain 2]

None of the actual % are what they say they are ... clearly lower, or the time frame for this is same as on a gamble machine it can return the other positive 50% after 1-2 years when no one on server anymore :))) 

I've seen worst myself streaks of 13-14 fails in a row then 1 success and again streak of fails. 
We had a print on discord with someone getting 1 success out of 15 tries 

 

Is same as in real life "It`s 1G bro, you get home is 0.8" 

[Skedi 83]

guys seems u dont know how the % of craft or goblin machine works..

let me explain u then

imagine lottery with 100 numbers  1-50 = success / 51-100 = fail

depend on what number u get it get u succeed or fail

and that is per item not total on server

if u made 10 craft doesnt mean u will get 5 of them succeed

u can fail 10/10 or even fail 10/10

hope i explained good

Greetings

[eskymo 6]

sry but u didn't explain :( to be calculated us a % it has to be from something ..u don't do % from nothing..so if it 10 the number we refering..then 50% change means from 10 tries u win 5..can be 5 loose in a row and then 5 wins and end o cicle, and again...now if the dev or admin gives a number to orientate to then we will know if is any point using this feature of the website.

 

maybe i'm wrong, so please someone explain properly how is this calculated because from the looks of it is not 50%.

[nauseda 7]

6 часов назад, eskymo сказал:

sry but u didn't explain :( to be calculated us a % it has to be from something ..u don't do % from nothing..so if it 10 the number we refering..then 50% change means from 10 tries u win 5..can be 5 loose in a row and then 5 wins and end o cicle, and again...now if the dev or admin gives a number to orientate to then we will know if is any point using this feature of the website.

 

maybe i'm wrong, so please someone explain properly how is this calculated because from the looks of it is not 50%.

It starts working with bigger numbers. If you run it 1000 times it'll be probably like 512/488, from 10000 => 5001/4999, etc.

[Positive 199]

8 hours ago, eskymo said:

sry but u didn't explain :( to be calculated us a % it has to be from something ..u don't do % from nothing..so if it 10 the number we refering..then 50% change means from 10 tries u win 5..can be 5 loose in a row and then 5 wins and end o cicle, and again...now if the dev or admin gives a number to orientate to then we will know if is any point using this feature of the website.

 

maybe i'm wrong, so please someone explain properly how is this calculated because from the looks of it is not 50%.

There is no cycle for that rate. You making mix one time and for exact time you got 50% so in can be fail or success. When you mix again it starts over. And so on. 

[Demolus 88]

8 hours ago, eskymo said:

sry but u didn't explain :( to be calculated us a % it has to be from something ..u don't do % from nothing..so if it 10 the number we refering..then 50% change means from 10 tries u win 5..can be 5 loose in a row and then 5 wins and end o cicle, and again...now if the dev or admin gives a number to orientate to then we will know if is any point using this feature of the website.

 

maybe i'm wrong, so please someone explain properly how is this calculated because from the looks of it is not 50%.

Find somewhere in internet "Random Numbers generator"

There will be possibility. Write on paper 1 number between 0-10 or just think about 1 number. Generate 5 random numbers between 0-10.

If your number will be in that generated 10, you win, if will not be, you fail. And do it few times. You will see how easy is to lose few times in the row.

[Skedi 83]

9 hours ago, eskymo said:

sry but u didn't explain :( to be calculated us a % it has to be from something ..u don't do % from nothing..so if it 10 the number we refering..then 50% change means from 10 tries u win 5..can be 5 loose in a row and then 5 wins and end o cicle, and again...now if the dev or admin gives a number to orientate to then we will know if is any point using this feature of the website.

 

maybe i'm wrong, so please someone explain properly how is this calculated because from the looks of it is not 50%.

Let me explain u again!

per item is 50-50 not in total crafts!

50% can fail

50% can succeed!

that mean u can be lucky and make 10/10 succeed or unlucky and make 10/10 fails

or even worst can fail 100 items

[Arturs 1,295]

Ultimative guide about how random works

 

[eskymo 6]

Skedi and Posivite ty for explaining, now i get it, i think.....

[amadeys 33]

"Monte Carlo Falsehood: Why Gambler's Fallacy Is So Dangerous in Everyday Life

Neither education nor a high IQ can protect you from it. Moreover, the smarter a person is, the more easily he falls into the trap of the so-called gambler's fallacy. And this could cost him dearly.

Imagine that you are tossing a coin - well, much like a football referee does before the start of a match. You get heads, heads, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails in turn. What do you think is the chance that it will come up heads?

If you think that the chance is great - greater than tails again - then you're screwed. Each time, heads have the same chance as tails - 50:50. And it doesn’t matter at all that before this the head has already fallen five times in a row.

In exactly the same way, 15 years ago, thousands of Italians were caught when the whole country suddenly fell ill with “fever 53.” This madness began due to the fact that in lottery draws - starting in 2003 - the number 53 suddenly stopped appearing."

https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/russian/vert-fut-51575655?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc